返回序列
“返回序列”到底是什么?? The phrase describes the yearly variation in an investment portfolio's rate of return. But what kind of impact do these deviations from the average return have on a portfolio's final value?
Let's take a closer look at a few different investment scenarios. The first few scenarios focus on how market volatility affects a portfolio while assets are accumulating, and the last scenario focuses on how market volatility affects a portfolio from which distributions are being taken.
One study found the sequence of returns appears manageable during accumulation. An analysis from BlackRock compared three model investing scenarios: three investors start portfolios with lump sums of $1 million, and each of the three portfolios averages a 7% annual return across 25 years.
In two of these scenarios, annual returns ranged from a hypothetical -7% to +22%. 在第三种情况下，回报率仅为每年7%. In all three situations, each investor accumulates the same total of $5,434,372 after 25 years. This is because the average annual return is a hypothetical 7% in each of the three portfolios.1
重要的是要记住，AG捕鱼王新版app下载是有风险的, AG捕鱼王新版app下载决策应该基于你自己的目标, 时间范围, 风险承受能力. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The BlackRock study assumes that the three hypothetical investors evaluated their financial ability to continue making purchases through periods of declining and rising prices.
When you shift from asset accumulation to asset distribution, the story can change. There is the risk that your distribution strategy could coincide with a period of declining prices, 这可能会带来挑战.
Another model investing scenario by BlackRock compared two hypothetical portfolios starting with $1 million. Both portfolios took $60,000 in annual inflation-adjusted withdrawals.1
其中一个AG捕鱼王新版app下载组合在早期表现良好, earning a 22% return in its first year and a 15% return in its second year. Though it suffered some losses in its later years, the portfolio actually increased in value to $1.35年后的100万.
The second portfolio had losses in its early years of -7% in's first year and -4% in its second year. 这个AG捕鱼王新版app下载组合还不到35年就没钱了.
Though both portfolios averaged a 7% annual rate of return over the course of 35 years, the early losses suffered by the second portfolio had long-term effects on the portfolio's performance.
如果你正准备退休, having an understanding of the sequence of returns may help you ask important questions about your overall investment strategy.
1. 贝莱德.com, 2023
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